"Tea Party", A Spinoff Political Entity In The Republican Party Of Ross Perot's 1990's Reform Party

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Massive Democrat And Libertarian Republican Bias In Presidential Polling Against Donald Trump



Donald Trump gets hammered in polling due to bias from the democrats and now the libertarian rino republicans

There's nobody monitoring the accuracy of the polls fed to the public

Here's a great article on the "Bias Polling" against Donald Trump everyone really needs to read and, "Understand" located after my bolded text here. I'm seriously disappointed in the recent polling data showing Billary's lead over Donald Trump without pointing out the flaws in the polling as outlined in this article.


The problem with believing the recent polling is why would any news web site use the "University" polling knowing these schools are most likely using "liberal activists" that support communism to do the polling? Mainly "Quinnipiac University In Connecticut" which is a democrat state and "Monmouth University In New Jersey" also in a democrat state. Then they add polling from ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN which are democrat and libertarian leaning polls that hates the non libertarian republican base. The "Wall Street Journal" is not a "Small Business" supporter. The "Boston Globe" is completely democrat. 

Fox News polling shows basically the same numbers in their polling but they too have many libertarian and democrats working for them and the owner majority share holder is libertarian leaning ban soda person. I read an article on Fox News polling and it wasn't so Rosie (Or To Rosie O'Donnell) about the way they do their phone polling. I do give a thumbs up completely for the new "Fox News Polling On Fox Nation" that is open polling to passerby's. The new Fox News Nation polling requires no registration or emails so you just have to click into the site and vote.

The issue that needs to be looked at is when you do phone polling Hillary Clinton is winning. But when you do open polling of passerby's Donald Trump is crushing Hillary Clinton to no end.   

Now with the Libertarian Rino Republicans all supporting Hillary Clinton the libertarian polling input is increasing the bias towards Donald Trump. There's only one true polling website that shows what the true polling numbers are for Donald Trump and this Fox Nation News website polling is unofficial.



If this Fox Nation News polling web site would restrict each question to one vote and disallow votes from foreign ISP's the margin of error would not be so drastic. The ongoing official way polling is done is to poll by registered voters but still there's so much bias and corruption with illegal aliens allowed to be registered voters by non enforcement doing open polling of anyone is most likely more accurate. 

I am under the same thought about the polling going on at this time and was getting ready to write up my own article on it but now after I came across this article during my research I don't have to. This article states exactly my thoughts on the polling vs what I'm actually seeing myself. 

Basically the article below tells the reader more known democrats and now anti Trump libertarian rino republicans are getting phone calls over known Donald Trump supporters. The phone calls are targeted to known state districts that have democrat and libertarian rino republican elected officials. Democrats get polled at a ratio of 2 to 1. Racial makeup of districts polled is never shown.

The independent vote is often left out of the polling matchup numbers also. All polls do registered voters and if you are registered as an independent in many cases your polling vote won't be counted if it goes to Donald Trump.  

Election results given after each race and compared with the polling results before the races always show the bias in polling and in many comparisons the bias is enormous. 

Even with this massive polling bias being done by the democrats and libertarian rino republicans Donald Trump is still getting some good numbers showing him 10 points behind Hillary Clinton. If the polls were not bias Donald Trump would poll at 76 above Hillarys 24. This bias by the democrats and libertarian rino republicans is heavy to knock down Donald Trumps 76 points to 10 points under Hillary. 




Evidence for massive liberal bias in Ipsos polling of the Trump vs. Clinton match-up

By Sierra Rayne | American Thinker

Stepping out of reality into the rapidly expanding landfill of polling data biased against Donald Trump reveals what a disaster is taking place when it comes to surveying the public's actual opinion -- rather than the desired liberal narrative -- about the 2016 general election.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) has released yet another state poll on the Trump versus Hillary Clinton match-up, this time for Virginia. Yesterday's article examined a range of PPP's state-level polling data in the Trump v. Clinton cage match, revealing some apparently serious liberal bias. The Virginia poll just adds to the concerns.

The proverbial "tell" in these types of data sets is how respondents answered the question regarding their presidential vote in 2012. If the poll is representative of the public, the relative percentages of Obama 2012 versus Romney 2012 voters surveyed should approximate -- within reason -- how the state in question actually voted in 2012. But if there are significant deviations between the poll's composition and the 2012 results, the cause either needs to be fully explained by the pollster, or we default to the assumption of a bias.

PPP's Virginia poll, representing "one of the most important swing states in the country," claims the following:
The Presidential race in Virginia is pretty tight. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 42-39, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head contest Clinton's lead remains 3 points at 48/45. Clinton's benefiting from Democrats in Virginia (83/8) being more unified around her than Republicans (76/5) are around Trump. But with independents Trump's up 42/29.
When asked who they voted for in the last presidential election, 50% of respondents said Obama while just 41% said Romney, for a 9% Obama (read: liberal) edge. But Obama only won the state by 3.9% in 2012, meaning there appears to be at least a 5% liberal bias in the survey composition.

Remove that bias favoring the Democratic candidate, and Clinton's lead disappears -- leaving Trump likely leading by 2% or more in Virginia, depending on the potential presence of other compounding biases in the poll.

Then there is the latest edition of Reuter's Polling Explorer from June 14, supposedly showing Clinton up by 8.5% over Trump, 39.1% to 30.6%. But of the 1,481 respondents, 642 (43.3%) are Democrats, 493 (33.3%) are Republicans, and 206 (13.9%) are Independents, with 138 (9.3%) "members of another party." A 10% bias of Democrats over Republicans is 9% above the past two-month average of actual party affiliations. Remove that liberal bias, and now the race is a statistical tie.

Even worse, when asked who they voted for in 2012, 582 (39.3%) said Obama and just 355 (24.0%) said Romney. Thus, since the national results in 2012 only had Obama ahead of Romney in the popular vote by 3.9%, we conclude this suggests a 11.4% liberal bias in the survey composition. Based on this built-in bias, it appears Trump may actually be ahead of Clinton by nearly 3% at the national level once the bias is corrected for.

Finally, there is a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday -- and conducted June 11-15 -- that claims Clinton is up 9% over Trump in the head-to-head. No demographic data was released with the poll, which should raise a red flag. With what information we can tease out of the information provided, significant flaws are apparent.

Based on the data for "All Adult Americans" surveyed on issues such as the major problems facing the nation, as well as Obama's approval rating and whether the nation is headed on the right track or not, it is clear that the ratio of Democrats:Republicans in the poll was a remarkably high 2:1! For interested readers, the general math behind such calculations is described in my previous article.

Moving on to the head-to-head match-up among registered voters, solving the available polling data with a 3-equation system solver reveals that the Trump versus Clinton poll appears to be comprised of about 46% Democrats and 36% Republicans, for a 10% Democrat bias. Yet again, remove the clear bias, and Clinton's lead is gone.

This isn't surprising, given the source. Serious concerns have been raised previously over the possible political motivations behind liberal bias in Ipsos polling.

Overall, in all polls seen to date at the state or national levels, systematic liberal bias is clear. In some cases, Democrats are being polled at apparent 2:1 ratios over Republicans, and in all situations, once the polling bias is removed, so is any Clinton lead.
Stepping out of reality into the rapidly expanding landfill of polling data biased against Donald Trump reveals what a disaster is taking place when it comes to surveying the public's actual opinion -- rather than the desired liberal narrative -- about the 2016 general election.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) has released yet another state poll on the Trump versus Hillary Clinton match-up, this time for Virginia. Yesterday's article examined a range of PPP's state-level polling data in the Trump v. Clinton cage match, revealing some apparently serious liberal bias. The Virginia poll just adds to the concerns.

The proverbial "tell" in these types of data sets is how respondents answered the question regarding their presidential vote in 2012. If the poll is representative of the public, the relative percentages of Obama 2012 versus Romney 2012 voters surveyed should approximate -- within reason -- how the state in question actually voted in 2012. But if there are significant deviations between the poll's composition and the 2012 results, the cause either needs to be fully explained by the pollster, or we default to the assumption of a bias.
PPP's Virginia poll, representing "one of the most important swing states in the country," claims the following:
The Presidential race in Virginia is pretty tight. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 42-39, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head contest Clinton's lead remains 3 points at 48/45. Clinton's benefiting from Democrats in Virginia (83/8) being more unified around her than Republicans (76/5) are around Trump. But with independents Trump's up 42/29.
When asked who they voted for in the last presidential election, 50% of respondents said Obama while just 41% said Romney, for a 9% Obama (read: liberal) edge. But Obama only won the state by 3.9% in 2012, meaning there appears to be at least a 5% liberal bias in the survey composition.

Remove that bias favoring the Democratic candidate, and Clinton's lead disappears -- leaving Trump likely leading by 2% or more in Virginia, depending on the potential presence of other compounding biases in the poll.
Then there is the latest edition of Reuter's Polling Explorer from June 14, supposedly showing Clinton up by 8.5% over Trump, 39.1% to 30.6%. But of the 1,481 respondents, 642 (43.3%) are Democrats, 493 (33.3%) are Republicans, and 206 (13.9%) are Independents, with 138 (9.3%) "members of another party." A 10% bias of Democrats over Republicans is 9% above the past two-month average of actual party affiliations. Remove that liberal bias, and now the race is a statistical tie.

Even worse, when asked who they voted for in 2012, 582 (39.3%) said Obama and just 355 (24.0%) said Romney. Thus, since the national results in 2012 only had Obama ahead of Romney in the popular vote by 3.9%, we conclude this suggests a 11.4% liberal bias in the survey composition. Based on this built-in bias, it appears Trump may actually be ahead of Clinton by nearly 3% at the national level once the bias is corrected for.

Finally, there is a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday -- and conducted June 11-15 -- that claims Clinton is up 9% over Trump in the head-to-head. No demographic data was released with the poll, which should raise a red flag.

With what information we can tease out of the information provided, significant flaws are apparent.
Based on the data for "All Adult Americans" surveyed on issues such as the major problems facing the nation, as well as Obama's approval rating and whether the nation is headed on the right track or not, it is clear that the ratio of Democrats:Republicans in the poll was a remarkably high 2:1! For interested readers, the general math behind such calculations is described in my previous article.

Moving on to the head-to-head match-up among registered voters, solving the available polling data with a 3-equation system solver reveals that the Trump versus Clinton poll appears to be comprised of about 46% Democrats and 36% Republicans, for a 10% Democrat bias. Yet again, remove the clear bias, and Clinton's lead is gone.

This isn't surprising, given the source. Serious concerns have been raised previously over the possible political motivations behind liberal bias in Ipsos polling.

Overall, in all polls seen to date at the state or national levels, systematic liberal bias is clear. In some cases, Democrats are being polled at apparent 2:1 ratios over Republicans, and in all situations, once the polling bias is removed, so is any Clinton lead.

Copy/Pasted From "American Thinker"


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